Should anyone ask, I predict the following


Sitting here with a glass of Port Ellen scotch and thinking about the new year: We live in interesting times and are about to move into a year with less smooth and more crunch. A friend an myself compare notes on the markets and finally we see our predictions coming true. A year or two later than I expected but it now seems like the crunch will be much harder than if the hit had been taken earlier. My summary for the new year:

  1. Growth in western economies will slow.

  2. The S&P 500 index will fall by 10%

  3. Tech stock speculation will push up companies like Apple and Google by another 100% before the multiples get too long and we see a long overdue correction. Value investors have long since deserted the sexy stocks and moved back to fundamentals with good multiples. Expect speculators to be burned.

  4. The new topic of London dinner parties turns to being unable to find tenants for their buy-to-let.

  5. the soap opera of lost government data will continue


Expect more soul searching as the crunch takes hold. Now may be a time to invest in publishers of books covering frugality.

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